R1:IF the inflation is high THEN unemployment rate is high.

R2:IF the inflation is high AND the interest rates are high THEN stock prices are low.

R3:IF the gold price is high OR unemployment rate is high OR the dollar exchange rate is low THEN the stock prices are low.

a) The certainty factor for high inflation rate is 0.8 and CF for high interest rates is 0.6

Find the certainty factor for the stock prices low. Use RULE 2 only.

b)In addition to conditions in a), the certainty factors for high gold price is 0.5 and that of low dollar exchange is 0.7.

Find the overall certainty factor ( CF) for stock prices low.

Use combination of rule technique to solve the problem.

Given the following set of rules for the decision support system:

R1:IF A THEN B

R2:IF F THEN D

R3:IF C THEN F

R4:IF E THEN F

R5:IF G THEN A

R6:IF J THEN C

R7:IF D THEN K

It is given that J is true.

Find out if K is true.

Solve using:

a )Forward chaining and

b) Backward chaining

and obtain results using both methods.

Draw proper flow diagrams for forward and backward chaining.
Question 3 (5 points)

Given the following Contingency Table for the Test results for a disease:

Results of Test DiseasePresent Disease AbsentTotal

Positive Result 55 80 135

Negative Result 5 460 465

Total 60 540 600

Results of a hypothetical study to measure test performance of ELISA antibody test
are shown in the table above.

If the pretest probability of the blood test to be positive is p(D) =0.10, using Bayes
theorem, calculate the post test probability of the test, given that the test result is:

a.Positive ,

b.Negative.

c.Calculate the sensitivity, the specificity, the positive predictive value (PV+)
and the negative predictive value (PV-)of the test.

Equation: Equation editor

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