Risk probability and impact matrix
Scenario:
Your company, a major defense contractor, recently submitted
a bid for a Department of Defense (DoD) RFP entitled Automated Mobile Defense
System (AMDS). The executive team at your company has decided to promote you as
the new project manager to lead Project X. As the new project manager, you will
be responsible for managing the entire scope of Project X, which entails your
team being responsible in designing, developing, testing, demonstrating and
deploying 10 AMDS units to a location to be determined by the DoD, assuming a
successful demonstration. This project is expected to take at least 5 years to
complete at a cost of $1.5 billion. The success of Project X is critical to the
growth of your company. The DoD has committed to order 150 more AMDS units at a
price of $10 million per unit if the AMDS demonstration is successful and meets
all of their quality expectations. The goal of Project X is to develop a
defense system to protect major and strategic cities within the US in the event
of a missile attack from a hostile nation. It is to be a redundant system, the
last in a series of defensive weapons to be used only in the event that all
other defensive systems have failed, when enemy anti-ballistic missiles (ABMs)
are approaching the US and only AMDS is left to take them down.
After reviewing the RFP, the statement of work (SOW) and
your company’s bidding proposal, you realized how complex this project will be.
The conceptual design for the AMDS consists of a mobile housing unit (MHU) containing
20 anti-ballistic missiles (ABMs) based on a radically new design; an
anti-missile control computer (AMCC) used to automatically target and deploy
the ABMs; and a retrofitted detection device (code name: SKYEYE) built on
proven, patented radar technology which your company owns. All of these devices
(the ABMs, the AMCC and SKYEYE) will be completely housed in the MHU, which is
planned to be an enhanced 18-wheel tractor-trailer. A self-contained power
source (for the ABMs) and solar charged batteries for the AMCC and SKYEYE make
the entire AMDS portable and completely automatic (no personnel are required to
operate any of the systems). However, military personnel on a regular basis
will perform routine system monitoring and maintenance, preferably from a
remote site. On-site maintenance should only be needed on rare occasions
expected to arise from unforeseen events such as earthquakes, tornados, ice
storms, etc. Should it become necessary, military personnel will move the AMDS
to a location known only to them. While it was not included in the design
accepted by the DoD, your company would like to be able to provide additional
capability with the system: They would like the AMDS to be able to operate
while it is being moved.
Your team for this project will include over a dozen nuclear
scientists, engineers, and technology professionals. Many of them are
acquainted with the rudiments of project management, but very few know much
about project risk management. You will need to do some risk management education
and training, along with managing schedule, budget and scope.
Task:
Deliverable Length: 1500 – 1750 words in Excel spreadsheet
Details: You have selected your project team members from
different disciplines (nuclear scientists, engineers, technologists, regulatory
experts) to work with you on the project risk management plan. Before you can
start developing your risk management plan, you first need to perform a risk
analysis and create a probability and impact matrix. This matrix uses a weighting
system to rate and measure project risks by organizing it in a chart using a
three point estimate. You will be performing a risk probability and impact
assessment in order to help you plan risk responses for these risks in the
coming weeks, so it’s important to agree on them now.
Create a risk probability and impact matrix by listing those
risks that you think are appropriate for Project X. The matrix should include:
Description of the risk
External risks
Internal risks
Budget risks
Schedule risks
Resource risks
Quality risks
Categorize them according to your knowledge of risks and
their probability and impact to the project. Develop a weighting system to help
you rate risk levels (measure), utilizing the three point estimate to assign
risk probability and impact. If you have made assumptions about the project,
include them at the top or bottom of the template.
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