Mat 540 MCQs

1. Probability Type (10.0 points)

A ___________ probability is the probability that an event
occurs given that another event has already occurred.

a) joint

b) marginal

c) conditional

d) exclusive

Answer: _____

2. Probability of Multiple Events (10.0 points)

Jim is considering pursuing an MS in Information Systems
degree. He has applied to two different universities. The acceptance rate for
applicants with similar qualifications is 20% for University X and 45% for
University Y. What is the probability that Jim will be accepted at both
universities?

a) .65

b) .25

c) .20

d) .09

Answer: _____

3. Binomial Probability (10.0 points)

A fair die is rolled nine times. What is the probability
that an odd number (1,3 or 5) will occur less than 3 times?

a) .0899

b) .2544

c) .7456

d) .9101

Answer: _____

4. Normal Probability Distribution (10.0 points)

A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz
and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is less
than 22.25 oz?

a) .1915

b) .3085

c) .6915

d) .7257

Answer: _____

5. Normal Probability Distribution II (10.0 points)

The metropolitan airport commission is considering the
establishment of limitations on noise pollution around a local airport. At the
present time, the noise level per jet takeoff in one neighborhood near the
airport is approximately normally distributed with a mean of 100 decibels and a
standard deviation of 3 decibels. What is the probability that a randomly
selected jet will generate a noise level of more than 105 decibels?

a) 0.0228

b) 0.0475

c) 0.0500

d) 0.0512

Answer: _____

6. Joint Probabilities (10.0 points)

Employees of a local company are classified according to
gender and job type. The following joint frequency table summarizes the number
of people in each job category.

If an employee is selected at random, what is the
probability that the employee is male and salaried staff?

a) 0.015

b) 0.100

c) 0.167

d) 0.267

Answer: _____

7. Find the Conditional Probability (10.0 points)

Employees of a local company are classified according to
gender and job type. The following table summarizes the number of people in
each job category.

If an employee is selected at random, what is the
probability that the employee is female given that the employee is a salaried
staff member.

a) .1667

b) .50

c) .60

d) .625

Answer: _____

8. Decision Making without Probabilities (10.0 points)

The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether
to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary
with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.

If he uses the maximin criterion, how many new workers will
he hire?

a) 1

b) 2

c) 3

Answer: _____

9. Expected Value of Perfect Information EVPI (10.0 points)

The quality control manager for ENTA Inc. must decide
whether to accept (a1), further analyze (a2) or reject (a3) a lot of incoming
material. Assume the following payoff table is available. Historical data
indicates that there is 30% chance that the lot is poor quality (s1), 50 %
chance that the lot is fair quality (s2) and 20% chance that the lot is good
quality (s3).

What is the maximum amount that you would be willing to pay
for perfect information?

a) 20

b) 39

c) 57

d) 77

Answer: _____

10. Decision Tree Expected Value (10.0 points)

Consider the following decision tree.

What is the expected value at node 4?

a) 600

b) 1600

c) 1800

d) 2500

Answer: _____

11. Decision Tree Expected Value II (10.0 points)

Use the decision tree from question 10.

What is the value associated with node 3?

a) 600

b) 1600

c) 1800

d) 2500

Answer: _____

12. Expected Value of Perfect Information II (10.0 points)

A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent,
or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on
whether business is brisk or slow.

If the probability of brisk business is .40 and for slow
business is .60, determine the expected value of perfect information is:

a) 12

b) 55

c) 57

d) 69

Answer: _____

13. Fill-in-the-blank (10.0 points)

The __________ of sample information is the difference
between the expected value with and without additional information.

a) efficiency

b) utilization

c) expected value

d) events

Answer: _____

14. Fill-in-the-blank II (10.0 points)

The __________ of sample information is the ratio of the
expected value of sample information to the expected value of perfect
information.

a) utilization

b) expected value

c) efficiency

d) events

Answer: _____

15. Find the Simulation Value (10.0 points)

If a simulation begins with the first random number, what
would the first simulation value be? (Hint: The random numbers are chosen from
0 – 100 with uniform distribution, so divide each random number by 100.)

a) 1

b) 2

c) 3

d) 4

Answer: _____

16. Find the Simulation Value II (10.0 points)

Given this frequency distribution, the random number 0.61
would be interpreted as a demand of:

a) 0

b) 1

c) 2

d) 3

Answer: _____

17. Complete the Simulation (110.0 points)

A graduate research assistant “moonlights” at the
short order counter in the student union snack bar in the evenings. He is
considering asking for help taking orders, but needs to convince the management
that they should hire another student. Because he is taking a simulation class,
he thinks it may be the perfect way to convince management to hire more help if
he can show that customers have to wait a long time. When a customer arrives,
he takes their order and their payment, prepares the food, gives it to the
customer, and then takes the order from the next person in line. If someone
arrives while he’s cooking an order, they have to wait until he’s completed the
current order. He has simulated 5 orders.

Average customer waiting time is:

a) 1 minute

b) 2 minutes

c) 2.5 minutes

d) 3.0 minutes

Answer: _____

18. Fill-in-the-blank II 2 (10.0 points)

The __________ method is the most common type of forecasting
method for the long-term strategic planning process.

a) time series

b) regression

c) qualitative

Answer: _____

19. Computer the Moving Average (10.0 points)

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream
sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

You are at the beginning of period 6. Compute a 3-period
moving average forecast for this period.

a) 246.67

b) 247.50

c) 283.33

d) 300

Answer: _____

20. Compute 5-month Moving Average (10.0 points)

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream
sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

You are at the beginning of period 6. Computer a 5-month
moving average forecast for this period.

a) 237.0

b) 247.5

c) 257.0

d) 300.0

Answer: _____

21. Find the Average Forecast Error (10.0 points)

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a
product

Determine the average forecast error when using the 4-month
moving average method.

a) 5.25

b) 5.75

c) 6.25

d) 6.75

Answer: _____

22. Find the weighted average (10.0 points)

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a
product

Use a weighted moving average method with weights w1 = .2,
w2 = .3 and w3 = .5 and determine the forecasted demand for September.

HINT: Remember that the first weight refers to the most
recent month.

a) 33.5

b) 35.5

c) 37.5

d) 38.5

Answer: _____

23. Forecast Using Linear Regression (10.0 points)

Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money
spent on gambling and winnings:

If he spends $20, how much can he expect to win if he uses
regression analysis?

a) 320

b) 370

c) 410

d) 450

Answer: _____

24. Forecast Pattern Type (10.0 points)

__________ is an up-and-down repetitive movement within a
trend occurring periodically.

a) Prediction

b) Seasonal pattern

c) Trend

d) Cycle

Answer: _____

25. Choose the Correct Method Type (10.0 points)

__________ attempt to develop a mathematical relationship
between the item being forecast and factors that cause it to behave the way it
does.

a) Qualitative methods

b) Regression

c) Time series

d) Quantitative methods

Answer: _____

26. Determine the graph trend type (10.0 points)

Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the
data?

a) Cyclical only

b) Trend plus cyclical

c) Trend plus seasonal

d) Seasonal only

Answer: _____

27. Determine Type of Averaging Method (10.0 points)

__________ is an averaging method that reacts more strongly
to recent changes in demand.

a) Weighted moving average

b) Exponential smoothing

c) Linear Trend Line

d) Moving average

Answer: _____

28. Simple Exponential Smoothing (10.0 points)

Given an actual demand of 59, a previous forecast of 64, and
an alpha of .3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple
exponential smoothing?

a) 57.5

b) 60.5

c) 62.5

d) 65.6

Answer: _____

29. Determine the Regression Equation (10.0 points)

Consider the following annual sales data for 1996-2003, use
the linear regression method and determine the estimated sales equation. HINT:
Remember to use period numbers. Refer to your book’s example on the linear
trend line.

a) y = 2.63 + 0.21x

b) y = 2.63 – 0.21x

c) y = -0.21 + 2.63x

d) y = 0.21 – 2.63x

Answer: _____

30. Cause-Effect Relationship (10.0 points)

Consider the following annual sales data for 1996-2003. This
is the same table shown in the previous question. Determine the percentage of
in the variation of sales that can be attributed to the year.

a) 91.54%

b) 93.22%

c) 95.34%

d) 96.55%

Answer: _____

31. Extra Credit I – Normal Distribution (110.0 points)

The law firm of Dewey, Cheetham, and Howe has a pool of
candidates wishing for internship in the law firm. The law firm has decided to
test each candidate on his or her ability to win a nuisance lawsuit. Candidates
who score in the top 33% will be given an internship. The law firm has issued
similar tests in the past and knows that the average score is 80 (out of 100),
the standard deviation is 10, and that test scores are normally distributed.
What is the minimum score that a candidate must earn in order to place in the
top 33%?HINT: In a normal situation, you would be given the x-value and would
determine the area under the normal curve. Here, you are given the area under
the normal curve and must determine the x-value.

a) 81.25

b) 84.40

c) 86.30

d) 88.60

Answer: _____

32. Extra Credit II – Bayesian Analysis (110.0 points)

An airline is trying to determine whether the price of fuel
will rise or fall in the near future in order to determine whether to negotiate
a fuel contract now or later. The airline executives believe there is an 65%
chance that the cost of fuel will fall. However, they are risk-averse and would
prefer to hire an analyst to obtain more information. The airline executives
have found that when the price of fuel fell, the analyst correctly predicted
the decrease in cost 90% of the time. When the price of fuel rose, the analyst
correctly predicted the increase 75% of the time. The executives hired the
analyst, and the analyst issued a report predicting that the cost of fuel would
fall. What is the probability that the price of fuel will fall given the
analyst prediction of such a decrease? You should carry your calculations to 4
decimal places and round of your answer to 2.

a) .65

b) .68

c) .74

d) .87

Answer: _____

33. Extra Credit III – Forecast Errors (10.0 points)

This question requires some thought, but the correct answer
can be reached if you think long enough about it.You are performing an analysis
of your chosen forecasting method and have tracked errors for forecasts over
the previous 24 time periods. You have obtained the following results from your
error analysis:MAD = 25

MAPD = 0.10

E (Cumm. error) = 5What might you conclude about your
forecasts?

a) Forecasts are consistently above the actual demand.

b) Forecasts are consistently below the actual demand.

c) Forecasts fluctuate wildly above and below the actual
demand.

Answer: _____